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With 3rd choice at 2022 NFL Draft Houston Texans…
- Select (insert player here)…
- Chat with (insert team here)…
For some, it’s a lock that a team holding a top-five draft pick would use to pick a top-five rookie. For others, swapping that location if there’s no surefire player to choose from just makes in-world sense. Really smart footballers land in the middle, always flexible, always ready to read the landscape and make a smart, decisive move based on situational awareness.
Nick Caserio, general manager of the Houston Texans:
We are open for business. I think we’ve always been a bit more open-minded, thinking incrementally, up and down. It’s not just about moving for the sake of moving. And I think draft specific trades are always driven by A – player availability, B – where are you moving, what are you moving away from, then C – what do you get in return in terms of assets that could potentially fill out the rest of your team?
For the sake of discussion, let’s assume Houston is missing and/or uninterested in Aidan Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux and thinks the best way forward is to trade No. 3. The draft order is now set for the Top 24 teams after last weekend’s wild card matches.
Draft NFL Ordinance 2022
3 Houston Texans
7 New York Giants (via CHI)
10 New York Jets (via SEA)
15 Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA)
16 Philadelphia Eagles (via IND)
19 Philadelphia Eagles
The obvious trading partners for the Texans on this list are the New York Giants, New York Jets, and Philadelphia Eagles, as all three teams have multiple top-24 picks. OverTheCap.com have a location value simulator project, which we will consult for this exercise.
Right now, the Texans’ 2022 draft looks like this:
Round 1 – #3 – 2,443 points
Round 2 – #37 – 1,170 points
Round 3 – #68 – 862 points
Round 3 – #80 – 779 points
Round 4 – #130 – 533 points
Round 6 – #183 – 360 points
Round 6 – #202 – 310 points
Round 7 – #248 – 206 points
What if the Texans traded the No. 3 pick to the Jets?
According to the simulator, choice #3 is worth 2,443 points. A good business partner possible could be able be the New York Jets, a team desperate for young talent who has a cap and two top-ten picks.
If the Texans sent the No. 3 pick to the Jets in exchange for their No. 10 pick (rated at 1,833 points), that would leave a 610-point deficit. That remainder could be enough to get the Jets the 3rd or 4th round pick, depending on Caserio’s negotiating skills. In this scenario, Houston still has a top ten pick and also earns a 3rd or 4th round pick. Houston could also throw in one of their final picks to sweeten the deal; say, #202, is worth 310 points, giving Houston 920 points to land the Jets’ #108 and #144. The options are mind blowing and a good indicator of why draft day trading is so frantic.
Things get really weird when you add players to the trade mix, because different GMs will value different players, well, differently. Maybe Houston wants the Jets to start Braxton Berrios, their top-rated wide receiver, per Pro Football Focus. As Berrios is not a Pro-Bowl wide caliber, his value likely drops in the later rounds, adding maybe 200-300 points to the mix. Caserio is likely to devalue Berrios since he’s not Brandin Cooks, while the Jets will likely want the best point value for him since he’s their top-rated wide receiver. This is where Caserio will really make his money. Rick Smith shone in this area. If Caserio comes out of third place overall, we’ll definitely find out if he does too.
After this notional trade, Houston gives up draft picks No. 3 and No. 202. In doing so, they earn pick No. 10, pick No. 108, and either pick No. 144 or Braxton Berrios and possibly a pick. later, possibly the Jets’ 3rd or 4th round from 2023.
With the Jets’ thin picks, Caserio would be better served with another pick instead of Berrios; however, you get the idea of all that is possible here.
While Hutchinson or Thibodeaux is a no-brainer to pick at No. 3 if either is on the board, if those two go to the Lions and Glitter Kitties it looks like the runback will create the best opportunity. to improve the team for Caserio. Now all he will have to do is navigate through all of those teams’ values, calculate all of those sub-draft points, and deliver the card to the NFL commissioner in less than fifteen minutes.
No pressure.
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